Thursday, November 22, 2012

An Open Letter To Big Dan From The Guy Who's BETTER Than Nate Silver: RICHARD CHARNIN - TRUTH IS ALL


I met Richard Charnin on THE BRAD BLOG. His comments under the username "TRUTH IS ALL" about his election and voting analysis were and are impressive to everyone. I called him THE ULTIMATE NUMBERS CRUNCHER. Anyone who researches and is hip to electronic voting machine fraud, election fraud, follows Bev Harris', etc... knows of Richard Charnin. He has written several BOOKS on these subjects. He wrote me the following on Facebook, and I feel fortunate to have friends like him write to me, and I'd like to share this with everyone. Here is Richard Charnin in his own words.

I saw your POST about Nate Silver.Let me tell you about Nate.

Nate Silver DID NOT GET IT RIGHT. He predicted 313 EV for Obama.

My final prediction had 332 EV for Obama. That was exactly right.

Getting it right is not that big a deal. There were 10 states that were "competitive" if you believe the Likely Voter Polls. I got them all. I WAS JUST LUCKY. I used the LV polls just like everyone else. Obama's expected EV was 321:the sum of the expected values (state win probability * electoral vote). The snapshot was 332 (the actual summation of the winning electoral votes, not the expected value). The LV polls understate Obama's true vote, which I calculated to be 371 expected and 380 snapshot.

In 2008, I also had Obama's bogus 365 EV exactly right in 2008 (the expected value, not the snapshot).

I produce several measures for calculating EV: theoretical, snapshot, and simulation mean value. Obama had 420 True EV.

My model is an open book. Can't say the same about Nate's. But I can understand why. His model is junk.

The purpose of a Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation is to calculate the PROBABILITY OF winning the electoral vote. The probability is the number of winning election trials divided by the total number of trials. I used 500 election trials. That is all that is necessary. The Law of Large Numbers takes effect quickly in the rapid convergence to the mean. Nate does 100,000 trials - overkill. Prof. Sam Wang does nearly a million combinations - laughable.

Nate Silver is not a pollster. He is an aggregator of polls. A lot of sheeple think he is. I also aggregate, using the pollster's numbers. Oh, this will tell you ll you need to knowabout Nate: He ranked Zogby dead last among 100 pollsters a few years ago. So I had to set him straight with this:

He also wrote about "10 reasons to Ignore Exit Polls". I had to set him straight with this:

Nate Silver’s Final Prediction - Truthdig

Now Dan, why don't you write this about me. After all, you did call me the ULTIMATE NUMBER CRUNCHER. Here is the proof that you are right. Nate Silver is a an overrated corporate NY Times shill - who never says squat abut election fraud and who libels John Zogby ( a great pollster). Silver had the nerve to say that if Romney won, it would mean that the polls were BIASED against him Silver never considered that if Romney won, maybe it was becuase he STOLE it. Nate believes Bush won in 2004. What more do you need to know. Take it from this lifetine Quant, Nate doesn't know SQUAT about building mathematical models. His simulations are bullshit. But only I have the knowledge to see through his models and his character .Maybe you will now. too. LIKE YOU, DAN, I AM ALL ABOUT TRUTH. I AM ALL ABOUT FACTS. TRUTH IS ALL. NO BS. So when I saw that post you did on Silver I had to respond. It's 440am. I have to get some sleep.

The Election Model and True Vote Model track record. Nate Silver, eat your heart out. Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party LV Poll shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

I asked Richard about this article about "anonymous" stopping Karl Rove from stealing the election electronically like he stole Ohio in 2004 in Bush v Kerry:

Karl Rove Loses Election After Being Checkmated By Cyber Sleuths?

Here is "anonymous"s WARNING to Karl Rove before the election:

Here is the explanation by Thom Hartmann of what may have went on between "anonymous" & Karl Rove on election night:

...which would explain this famous bizarre Karl Rove clip on FOX "news" on election night:

(btw...why isn't Karl Rove in Jail???)

...and this was Richard's reply to the above "anonymous/Karl Rove" electronic internet rigging attempt of Ohio like 2004:
I cannot say. It's possible. I don't know the facts. Check out Bob Fitrakis and Cliff Arnebeck. I speak via phone at the 29 minute mark: The DC press conference video is up:

The description text below (on the youtube page) contains several key links and explanations, so the main youtube link above is "primary". However, if you embed the video into some other site you'll want to provide links to the same material, either via links to files you host or to the copies I have on google docs. Those files are attached to this message.

This press release covers issues related to election fraud and the political misuse of our so-called "justice" system. The issues are intertwined! In the Don Siegelman case, he was subjected to election fraud by Rove's operation and when that wasn't enough to make him quit politics they falsely jailed him.

This presentation includes a complete guide to the internetworked companies, people and organizations that make up Karl Rove's empire of election fraud.

The "road map" to Rove's empire is a PDF file available here:

The press release for this event is a one-page technical introduction to the core issues:

The link to the petition to free Don Seigelman via a pardon by Obama is located at:

There is also a selection of exit-poll related statistics at:

NOTE: the main camera had issues. This was recorded with a head-mounted Looxie2 camera from the audience that we used as backup. There are brief audio glitches caused by unknown interference at the press club, probably a sat uplink somewhere.

National Press Club main press conference

There you have it, from the BEST: "Truth Is All" Richard Charnin.

Fascinating presentation and discussion with RICHARD CHARNIN, author of "PROVING ELECTION FRAUD" at Palm Beach County PDA.

Richard's new book provides compelling evidence the recorded vote has deviated from the true vote in all elections since 1968. Why does this continue to happen and what can be done about it?




The famous Clint Curtis rigged electronic voting machines testimony, the Movie "Murder, Spies, & Voting Lies", & the HBO movie "Hacking Democracy":

It can take a lawyer, like Cliff Arnebeck, to sometimes set the techies straight.


Cliff Arnebeck and Bob Fitrakis are the two Ohio attorneys who deposed Mike Connell, and who have otherwise been working to expose Karl Rove’s election thievery since 2004.

From Cliff:

Some hackers/spooks hacked Romney’s computers, which crippled his election day get out the vote activity. However I fail to see how this relates to Rove’s meltdown on Fox News that night.

A successful hack of the Romney campaign computers would have affected all of the operation, would have been illegal, and would have been known to Rove early on election day. So, it does not explain Rove’s dramatic disconnect over Fox’s calling Ohio for Obama at the 11 PM (EST) news hour.

The hack we discovered was limited to Ohio. Its use was coming from Bob Urosevich the same guy who personally delivered a malicious patch in Georgia 2002 which flipped the votes and outcome in their governor and US Senate races. Our exposure of the problem in court through one of the top cyber security experts in the world (so certified by NSA) occurred at about 3:15 PM on election day.

Urosevich would have been informed that the fix had been exposed and that an Ohio judge with jurisdiction had expressed willingness to adopt the corrective action recommended by our expert. He and the one operative who would have been positioned pull the trigger, instead nixed the operation. Neither of them would have been so foolish as to contact Rove to inform him that the Ohio fix was off. Rove’s communications were surely being monitored by law enforcement authorities.

Thus, Rove’s mistaken rant over Ohio being prematurely called for Obama.

Cliff Arnebeck

Bev Harris has some VERY PROFOUND COMMENTS in this video that go far beyond just the subject of electronic voting machines:

Latest video from my buddy Tony, just came out:

As you know, at the end of posts I usually post music or comedy or something along those lines. I came across this prank, and it has to be the funniest/scariest prank ever! Get ready to laugh and/or be scared:

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